April 14, “Financial stone” broadcast, “Andy Xie: Most people believe that property prices will rise not fall.” Xie said that China’s urbanization has done almost, currently only in rural areas where the elderly and children, even if it has to move to the cities to rural areas, years, need places to live, he shall not buy from the house, so take the city to explain the rise of house prices will not fall is the self-deception. Following is the text Record:
Zeng Jingyi: Bureau of Statistics that we see today did not release in March real estate prices in 70 major cities in the chain of data, in fact, is published in the last month. We take a look, see how the chain private data.
A number of luxury residential sales in Beijing in March, said the chain has doubled, which is Beijing’s Asian high statistical agencies show that in March priced like a luxury 35 000 per square meter, or six million is a significant temperature rise luxury sales . The Mainland’s real estate sources said the past five to six month is Villa season, this year is significantly ahead of schedule. April opened the villa project intends to offer, or nearly 60% year on year, the chain up more than 10%.
Insiders said that the property market more and more like the stock market, experts are not forecast the future prices will go up or down in the end. They said that in 2007 everyone was optimistic about the property market, but by 2008 the property market has fallen. In 2009 when everybody look bad when the property market, property prices have continued to rise. Because of the property market is difficult to speculate, so many people worry that the future gains, and then come later to buy himself a disadvantage. Could it be that people are not afraid of falling real house, then fell to the rather, really lose it?
I remember a few years ago, when we are discussing, in fact, are worried about China’s stock market, but like all of the stock market is not so crazy, but rather on the real estate is crazy. How such a change occur?
Xie: Yes, last time was crazy on the stock market, after the stock market fell, we think the stock market will fall, and I heard a lot of words in private, they think the stock market dropped from more than 6000 points, more than 1,000 points, he was afraid. But in the real estate have not seen such a situation.
The last big real estate is 90 years out, that if 90 out of real estate, mainly in Hainan and Shanghai, Guangdong. House mainly export house, with basically nothing to do with people in general, so most people do not think the real estate cycle, we have this wave of upward cycle began walking from the 2002,2003, and sometimes look a little as if to cut up later, This is a cycle, has been facing up to go. So most people believe that real estate will rise, not fall. And no demographic dividend, and now all children with the elderly in rural areas, Urbanization in China are doing almost the same. Even if there are people who move to rural areas to cities, need places to live, he can afford a house? Them with the real estate market simply does not matter. So you say what the urbanization of population, holding the property, that amounts to cheating their own, or you do not believe, but you are cheating other people.
The most stringent measures in recent years, the Chinese government dealt heavy blows to curb property prices
Voice of America
Inhibition of high fever and housing prices, China’s State Council has issued a new regulation policy, Chinese media said the new policy for the last few years the “most stringent” control measures. However, the Beijing real estate industry are different interpretation and observation.
State Council on April 17 entitled “The State Council on the strong surge in housing prices in some cities contain a notice,” while being referred to as the “new country 10″ document states: prices are too high in the region, may suspend the payment of the third set to buy and the third set of more housing loans. Notice also said that more than one year can not be provided for the tax certificates, or proof of social insurance pay non-resident, will also be temporarily suspended purchase of housing loans.
“New Country 10,” an introduction, staff housing industry is very sensitive to changes in market demand. Beijing Yizhuang sale sites salesman Cai Dongming said: “This morning we have received this message, but did not think the actual market situation less serious. Today it opened just 50 multiple listings, sold within a day or more than 20 sets with 50 sets. “
Beijing Evening News quoted experts as saying that Beijing’s real estate transactions will drop significantly, housing prices because the Government has recently introduced the policy after another, floor, room has been a marked fluctuation. China Economic Net said, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, customer focused real estate speculators, the recent massive sell-off. Zhejiang real estate speculators once a customer orders, to sell Beijing North Third Ring Road area of 20 housing units, the total cost as high as 1:03 million RMB 40,000 per square meter average price of housing.
In addition, Sina survey shows that 67.5% of users said that home loans will be suspended effective the third set of housing prices, 30% of users said that the recent plan does not buy a house.
Real estate industry Cai Dongming that the State Department’s new policy really take time to implement, housing demand will not immediately shrink in the short term but will be driven to some extent. He said: “Because not all banks under the final thing, that is, the implementation details, for example, buy two suites have to pay 50% down payment requirement has not been implemented, only 40% down payment, banks also will sign. As for the future When implemented, without a definite time, so the effect of policies is not so obvious, is not immediate. “
Reports indicate that, in addition to the mandatory policy, the State Council, local government recently to curb housing prices, or the forthcoming implementation of a series of policies, because the central part of the tax-making powers have been transferred to local governments. Southeast News Network recently reported that Chongqing will try levy personal property sales tax, known as “special property sales tax,” the implementation of the new tax program, said to have been approved by the State Council, Shanghai will be included in the trial implementation of the city.
“There are policies,” but the political environment is one of the characteristics. Latest 10 for the provisions of the State Council, Cai Dongming real estate industry that seems to have the backing, however, ultimately depends on enforcement, the Government’s determination to the test. He said: “The implementation of this policy, I feel sure your friends! But now banks do not formally below. However, some banks have begun to bear in the matter, the first suite has requested 30% down payment, 20% had not to make friends, no matter what size. If the intensity of the implementation of this policy is very large, would be affected; If the bank from which to find some loopholes, or take any other strategies, policies should be discounted; as long as the enforcement certainly would have been affected. “
Right now, the Chinese government housing prices “heavy fist shot”, the new policy frequently; housing market watchers and more, house prices crash that very clamor. Nevertheless, those interviewed generally agreed that Beijing real estate, not the Chinese housing market “steel” of the total demand worry, the next 7-8 years, Sellers of this job is very stable, only hope that prices moderate growth at the macro regulation and control, Wenzhou speculation Housing groups like the speculation have been checked.
However, scholars believe that all levels of government desire to increase revenue, and the possession of state land ownership is the source of the runaway housing prices.
Lived in China Construction Ministry official: developers themselves, “earned embarrassing”
Yesterday, at the Housing Fair “Wuhan Green Real Estate Forum”, Ministry of Housing and Urban Policy Research Center, Jue Wang Lin, deputy director of the national housing policy for the current report, said that the domestic property market in 2009, the phenomenon is too hot, is investment in the property market, consumer to stimulate policy and excess liquidity caused by factors such as, “A lot of developers themselves say, ‘money earned embarrassing’, the result is too high house prices rise a new round of state regulation.”
Wang Jue Lin seems, from the perspective of a market economy, prices can not rise, but if the increase exceeds the capacity of our mental and can not be accepted. Moreover, the domestic prices in some cities more than doubled several times, this is not real market behavior, such as Tongzhou, Beijing, overnight, up 6,000 yuan per square meter, of course, people quit.
He also made special mention of the financial crisis in the United States, Dubai, Japan, a decade of crisis and economic downturn, with a direct relationship between the real estate bubble in China although there will be no problem, but there do exist some city property market bubble, have protection, “the real estate market has become real estate speculators in the market, high prices and even consumer demand suppressed, restricted to the core of the mainstream of industrial development of the industry.”
The latest national regulatory policy is mainly to improve the two suites down payment and interest rates. Wang Jue Lin believes that the the point very clear, and clear the house prices around the containment ineffective to recover duties, and policies do not match, not taking the initiative to bear the same responsibility. Little effect if the current round of regulation, the state certainly will continue to introduce more stringent control measures to curb high prices.
For this year’s trends, Wang Jue Lin predicted the property market in 2010 will be the adjustment in the development of indicators to judge the market is good and bad turnover, rather than to see whether prices rise.
When asked to judge the property market in Wuhan, Wang Jue Cheng Lin Tan, Wuhan not know much about ourselves, but to know city prices have general super-million, compared to the income of Wuhan, the “still a little high.”